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Collingwood v Melbourne, Melbourne Cricket Ground, Fri Aug 17 (7:40pm) Results Since 2004
The Footypunt View Isn’t it amazing? A week ago and Collingwood were going to go into this game as red hot favourites, ready to rack up another easy 4 points on their way to a top 4 spot. But last week the little warning signs from Rounds 17 & 18 turned into a full scale alert for the Pies as they were outplayed by the Tigers in a 20 point upset. Melbourne then continued to turn the form leading into this game on its head with a 43 point demolition job on the Dogs and suddenly this looks anything but a walk in the park for Collingwood. As suggested in last weeks preview the Melbourne side is starting to take reasonable shape again following another run of injuries. Despite their poor overall record they have been very competitive against the “mid strength” sides on numerous occasions this season and last week showed signs that they may finish the year with a late rally. Collingwood have struggled against the Dees in recent times losing 4 straight and have already been one of Melbourne’s 4 victims this season, going down by 13 points at the G in Round 11. The Pies will be desperate to get back on track this week but if Melbourne can produce a similar quality performance to last week then that may be easier said than done. Picking a tight encounter here but just feel Melbourne may continue their run of wins over the Pies and the Demons at the line with a 9.5 point head start looks a reasonable bet. For value Either Side Under 15.5 at around $3.30 at Flem Sportsbet. Essendon v Carlton, Melbourne Cricket Ground, Sat Aug 18 (2:10pm) Results Since 2004
The Footypunt View Could this be the biggest farce of all time? Ratten denies any hint of “tanking” and while there may not have been any actual words spoken about deliberately trying to lose, the players are more than aware that a win at this point is really not in the clubs best interests. Anyone with a knowledge of high intensity sport understands that any “negative motivation” such as this is going to affect a teams chances of winning a close battle and that is exactly what has happened in the 4th quarters against Collingwood & Port over the past two weeks. However, that’s when Carlton have played teams that were desperate to win. This week they meet Essendon and Sheedy has already stated he has all but given away any finals hopes and its time to blood younger players (perhaps translated to “I’d love to stuff up the Blues and make sure they miss the priority pick). So, where does leave us? Potentially with two teams trying their absolute hardest not to win, without making it bleeding obvious. Can you imagine it…clanger after clanger, no tackles, 53 rush behinds per side. OK, perhaps I’m getting a bit carried away but if my slightly left of centre theory proves correct then this is how it may play out. The Bombers come out flat and Carlton kick away to a big lead. The Blues then realise they are headed for a win they don’t really want and their intensity levels drop right away. The Bombers then kick some goals and start catching up until they realise they really don’t want to win either. Carlton hang on for the victory and the players run around with their arms raised and smiles on their faces but are really while thinking "shit I hope we're not in trouble with Rats". Ratten fronts the media with "well I hope that puts an end to all that silly talk of tanking" while Shedes declares his disappointment at the Bombers performance and walks away with a rye smile all over his face. So where does that leave us in terms of the punt? Backing the Blues to lead at Half time paying $2.30 at Centrebet. For longer odds Carl to lead at all 4 quarters paying $5.10 with Vic TAB St Kilda v Fremantle, Telstra Dome, Sat Aug 18 (2:10pm) Results Since 2004
The Footypunt View Have Fremantle left their run too late? Normally you would have to say yes but a strange sequence of results over recent weeks has seen other teams fail to consolidate their positions in the 8 and leave the door ajar, if not halfway open for the Dockers. They lifted 2 or 3 levels against West Coast then proved far too strong for a below par Essendon side last week. They have dominated the Saints recently with 4 successive wins including a 46 point demolition in the wet at Subi earlier this season. Saint Kilda were more competitive than I expected on the scoreboard against Sydney last week but thought that was due mainly to a mediocre performance by the Swans as much as anything. Other than some inspired performances from Nick Riewoldt the Saints form has been unimpressive for me and despite being away from home feel Freo can win this well and launch a genuine run at the finals. The Dockers head to head at $2.36 with Pinnacle makes plenty of appeal here. NO FURTHER PREVIEWS WERE WRITTEN FOR ROUND 20 |
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