Richmond v Collingwood, Melbourne Cricket Ground, Fri Aug 10 (7:40pm)

 Results Since 2004

The Footypunt View

Richmond have been up against most of the competitions big guns in recent weeks and have come out on the wrong side of some serious hidings at the hands of Hawthorn, Port Adel, Sydney & Geelong. Collingwood go into the game in what could be described as a mini form slump after two of their least impressive performances this season against Brisbane & Carlton.

Richmond have a pretty good recent record against the Pies and will go into this match with a nothing to lose attitude after hit rock bottom in recent weeks. The Pies on the other hand may find this a tricky match to get up for and just have a feeling that the Tigers will be in this contest for a long way. The line has been set at +/- 35.5 points and this is a margin Richmond covered successfully on 7 consecutive occasions during Rounds 8 to 14. Happy to back the Tigers at the line this week with a 35.5 point head start.

Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions, Melbourne Cricket Ground, Sat Aug 11 (2:10pm)

Results Since 2004

The Footypunt View

Brisbane have dominated Hawthorn in recent years and are clearly the big improvers of the competition right now. They have recorded 5 straight wins and once again dominated their opposition last week downing the in form Kangaroos by 37 points…..and it would have been a lot more had they kicked straight. The Hawks returned to some of that excellent form they displayed in earlier rounds against the Bombers last week and will be looking to consolidate with another win here. Brisbane are just too hard to tip against in their current form and at better than even money head to head look a good punt once again.

Port Adelaide v Carlton, AAMI Stadium, Sat Aug 11 (3:10pm)

Results Since 2004

The Footypunt View

Port Adelaide came unstuck last week in a tough local derby, going down to the Crows by 8 points on a showery Adelaide evening. Prior to that they racked up big wins over Richmond & Melbourne and will looking for a similar result against a poor Carlton unit this weekend to further improve their percentage leading into the finals. Port are red hot with the bookies at $1.08 head to head and give away a 38.5 point start at the line. The head start is a useful one for the Blues and with a few showers forecast could just about be enough. Carlton at line for me but without any huge conviction.

Sydney v St Kilda, Telstra Stadium, Sat Aug 11 (7:10pm)

Results Since 2004

The Footypunt View

Saint Kilda have a strong recent record against Sydney and proved too good for the Swans in Round 7 with a 26 point upset. Sydney however currently have a full strength squad to chose from and look to be hitting form at exactly the right time. They have been impressive in patches over recent weeks, albeit against a couple of pretty weak outfits. As commented last week St Kilda’s form is not as good as it might appear on paper and for me they have been very poor against both Carlton and the Bulldogs in their past two matches. Sydney are in a different league to those sides and the Saints will need to improve significantly to be competitive here. Happy to give away 16.5 points at the line get on the Swannies all day long.

Melbourne v Western Bulldogs, Telstra Dome, Sat Aug 11 (7:10pm)

Results Since 2004

The Footypunt View

The Bulldogs were a pretty ordinary side in an even worse match last week and on reflection it was probably fair that neither team came away with the 4 points. Inspirational skipper Brad Johnson has been named for the Doggies this week but there must be some doubt over him starting after tweaking a hamstring against the Saints. The Melbourne line up is starting to look something close to full strength and and perhaps they are capable of finishing the season with a bit of a late rally. Melbourne have a very good record against the Bulldogs and if they can play with the sort of intensity they produced in some of the mid season rounds then an upset is certainly a possibility here. With a 23.5 point head start the Demons look a very good bet at the line and $4.00 head to head is also worthy of consideration for value.

Kangaroos v West Coast, Telstra Dome, Sun Aug 12 (1:10pm)

Results Since 2004

The Footypunt View

The Kangas produced a poor one against the in form Brisbane side last week but have generally bounced back well and if they play to their previous form then should give the W.A. boys plenty to think about here. West Coast did produce an 87 point victory on their last visit to Telstra Dome however that was over a depleted Bulldogs line up in Round 17 and wont count for much against a superior Kangas outfit.

Footypunt have taken an absolute pummeling on the Eagles over the past 8 weeks, 3 times labeling them bet of the week at the line and 3 times have failed to win, let alone cover the line. My theory that their worst form was behind them and they would run over all & sundry on their way to another Grand Final went out the window last week and I really don’t know what to make of their chances from here on in. Part of me says stick with the program and back them hard all the way to the finish but once bitten twice shy….3 times bitten and death is imminent. Not willing to have a crack at this one and feel the best option may be a small wager on Either Side Under 15.5 at $3.15 with Flem Sportsbet.

Geelong v Adelaide, Skilled Stadium, Sun Aug 12 (2:10pm)

Results Since 2004

The Footypunt View

Adelaide bounced back with a gritty win in their home derby against Port last week after some prior injuries to key players and a subsequent poor run of form. Despite the absence of Riccuito the team takes on a reasonable look this week with Ruttens inclusion at the back crucial against the Cats scoring machine. Geelong continued on their merry way blowing Richmond off the park last week and have now covered an incredible 13 lines in a row. To put that in perspective if you put $100 in a Pinnacle account after Round 5 and went all up on Geelong at the line since you would now have over $550,000 in the kitty. Hmmm…nice thought but back to reality.

Despite being on home turf this may be a tricky match for Geelong as Adelaide are one side with the quality & experience to put the Cats under real pressure if they play with the necessary intensity. With a 23.5 point head start I’m prepared to say Adelaide can put an end to Geelongs phenomenal run of line covering and will even stick my neck out and say the Crows can win if Geelong are little on the lethargic side this week. Either Side Under 15.5 also looks a nice value option at $4.00 with Flem Sportsbet

Fremantle v Essendon, Subiaco, Sun Aug 12 (4:40pm)

Results Since 2004

The Footypunt View

The Bombers have a good recent record over Fremantle but predominantly in Melbourne and have not won a match at Subiaco since their Elim Final victory over the Dockers in 2003. Freo finally produced the footy they are capable of last week in a bitter local derby win against arch rivals West Coast. Their intensity levels were 50% better than anything we had seen from them previously this season and the question mark this week will be whether that effort may have flattened them a little for this weeks encounter. Just get the feeling that the emotions of the Sheedy situation and all those tough close matches in earlier rounds may have taken their toll on the Bombers and they could perhaps have run their race for the season. If Freo can use the momentum of last weeks performance to start strongly then feel this could be a bit of a blow out. Happy to concede the 31.5 point head start and back the Dockers at the line paying $1.93 at Pinnacle.