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Round 17 Previews
Western Bulldogs v West Coast, Telstra Dome, Fri Jul 27 (7:40pm) TV Coverage (Victoria) - Channel 7 - 8.30pm (60 min delay) The Odds (as at 7pm Thurs)
Results Since 2004
Key Stats & Facts
The Form Book West Coast player stocks were boosted significantly last week and they duly bounced back to form with a much needed victory over arch rivals Sydney. The Bulldogs struggled to match up against Geelong and were brought back to earth with a 75 point thumping following back to back wins against Port Adelaide & Essendon The Footypunt View We’ve taken a real hammering on the Eagles lately. After unsuccessfully tipping them to bounce back in earlier rounds we jumped off last week and paid the price as they returned to the winners circle against the Swans. Back to form and close to full strength there is no reason why they cant finish the season off strongly and peak come finals time. The Bulldogs have struggled against the better defensive sides and providing West Coast play with last weeks intensity then they should be able to shut down the Dogs run through the middle and prove too strong. Expect the Eagles to cover the -20.5 line and $1.99 at Pinnacle looks like an attractive price.
Carlton v St Kilda, Telstra Dome, Sat Jul 28 (2:10pm) TV Coverage (Victoria) - Network 10 - 3.00pm (60 min delay) The Odds (as at 7pm Thurs)
Results Since 2004
Key Stats & Facts
The Form Book Carlton have been horrendous recently with a string of big losses culminating in last weeks 117 point hiding at the Gabba and Pagans subsequent demise from the top job. On the other hand Saint Kilda have turned their season around in no uncertain terms and continued the forward momentum with a commanding victory over the 2nd placed Hawks last week. The Footypunt View Saint Kilda won the Round 6 clash by 43 points when the Blues were traveling pretty well and the Saints were struggling with form & injuries. I don't think anyone would argue Saint Kilda are now at least a 20 point better side and Carlton are at least 20 points worse. There’s 83 points to start with. Add to that the Blues terrible record against the Saints over the past 6 years, the loss of Fevola, Pagans sacking, St Kildas desire to improve their percentage and the fact that winning could prove counter productive to next seasons draft picks and I cant see how this is going to be anything other than another walloping for the Blues. A lot is being made of the winning strike rate of teams the week after the coach is sacked but at the end of the day this is only relevant to the other circumstances which prevail. There are just too many negatives factors against Carlton for the change of coach to turn things around this week and despite giving away a sizable head start of 40.5 points the Saints look an outstanding bet to cover the line here.
Fremantle v Geelong, Subiaco, Sat Jul 28 (4:10pm) TV Coverage (Victoria) - Fox Sports 1 - 4.00pm (Live) The Odds (as at 7pm Thurs)
Results Since 2004
Key Stats & Facts
The Form Book Geelong continued their golden run by demolishing the Bulldogs last week and quite frankly don’t look like letting up any time soon. Fremantle pulled out a surprise by beating the Crows in Adelaide last week and with new coach Mark Harvey at the helm will be looking to continue their winning form this week against the red hot Cats The Footypunt View Geelong have a 1 & 3 record at Subi since 2004 but the losses have all been reasonably competitive, by 2 & 22 points to West Coast and 26 points to Fremantle. Given their recent form and last years 66 point victory over the Dockers at Subi the trip to Perth this week is unlikely to cause any major concern for the Cats and you get the feeling that only a below par performance could bring their undoing. Fremantle did play better against the Crows last week and have been solid at home this season but they were unable to beat the Kangas in a must win game two weeks ago and in their current form Geelong will provide an even more difficult challenge. The line looks surprisingly narrow at -7.5 points and no reason why the Cats won’t cover this again at $1.97 with Pinnacle.
Collingwood v Brisbane Lions, Melbourne Cricket Ground, Sat Jul 28 (7:10pm) TV Coverage (Victoria) - Network 10 - 7.30pm (30 min delay) The Odds (as at 7pm Thurs)
Results Since 2004
Key Stats & Facts Collingwood have clearly broken Brisbane’s dominance against them winning the last two matches including a ground breaking victory at the Gabba earlier this season The Form Book Brisbane have rocketed back into form, following up a massive upset over West Coast in Perth with two big home victories against the struggling Melbourne and Carlton. Collingwood again produced a solid win over the Bombers last week although appeared to lose focus during the 3rd quarter after going into half time with match all but sown up. The Footypunt View This is clearly Brisbane’s time to shine if they hold out any hope of making a late charge for a finals berth. Even given their impressive form of the past 3 weeks one gets the feeling the Lions have come up against some pretty ordinary outfits and Collingwood will clearly provide much sterner resistance this weekend. Expect Collingwoods impressive young list to prove too strong and picking yet another favourite to cover the line despite giving away a 19.5 point head start.
Sydney v Richmond, Sydney Cricket Ground, Sat Jul 28 (7:10pm) TV Coverage (Victoria) - Fox Sports 1 - 7.00pm (Live) The Odds (as at 7pm Thurs)
Results Since 2004
Key Stats & Facts
The Form Book Richmond continued their dismal season with a 55 point loss to Port last week and have conceded an average of over 125 points per game over their past 6 matches. Sydney were outplayed by West Coast last week and were probably flattered a little by the final 12 point margin. The Footypunt View Hall & Kennelly have been named again this week and assuming they start this time then the Swans should be far too strong for the Tigers back at the SCG. Sydney have a real opportunity to improve their percentage and as a result I can’t see the foot coming off the accelerator any time before the final siren. They will be looking to rack up a big score against the Tigers weak defense and on this basis alone the line of -38.5 looks very coverable for the Swannies at $2.01 with Pinnacle.
Hawthorn v Kangaroos, Aurora Stadium, Sun Jul 29 (1:10pm) TV Coverage (Victoria) - Fox Sports 1 - 1.00pm (Live) The Odds (as at 6pm Fri)
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