|
|
|
|
Essendon v Melbourne, Telstra Dome, Fri Jun 29 (7:40pm) The Odds (as at 1pm Fri)
Results Since 2004
Key Stats & Facts
The Form Book Melbourne were performing very well leading into last weeks match with several strong performances against some of the better sides. No idea what happened against the Tigers but the Dees were plain terrible and were out of the game by half time. Essendon lie 6th on the ladder with a 7 & 5 record and as a rule have been competitive with the best sides this season. A round 12 loss to Port at AAMI will see them determined to consolidate their position in the 8 this week. The Footypunt View I’m going to put last weeks Melbourne performance down to an off night and completely discount it in their form line when evaluating this match. They have been highly competitive in Rounds 6, 7, 9, 10 &11 against sides arguably stronger than Essendon and there is no reason why they shouldn’t bounce back strongly here. The Bombers had some tough matches Rounds 9 through 11 and just have a feeling the relief of winning those close contests could take the edge off them mentally for a match like this. After the fallout from last weeks embarrassment surely the Melbourne lads will be keen to prove that match an aberration and also send the coach out on the right note. Expecting the Demons to prove a bit too strong in a close encounter here and the head to head odds at around $2.20 look pretty fair value.
Geelong v Sydney, Skilled Stadium, Sat Jun 30 (2:10pm) The Odds (as at 1pm Fri)
Results Since 2004
Key Stats & Facts
The Form Book Geelong have won 7 in a row in a red hot streak and in the end simply proved too strong for a gutsy Brisbane side in Round 12. Sydney’s up & down year continues and last weeks unexpected loss to Collingwood sees them relegated to 10th place on the ladder The Footypunt View Logically and on form Geelong deserve to run out at $1.35 favourites but the competition is too even for any side to keep winning week in & week out and there is no doubt that Sydney have the game to close down the Cats attacking prowess. The Swans will also be desperate to turn around last weeks performance and should go into this one with an intensity Geelong have not encountered for some time. Despite the Cats home advantage I’m picking the Swans to cause an upset in this one and the head to head odds of $3.65 at Pinnacle look very attractive indeed for a side of their quality.
Fremantle v Carlton, Subiaco Sat Jun 30 (4:10pm) The Odds (as at 1pm Fri)
Results Since 2004
Key Stats & Facts
The Form Book Carlton put together a couple of impressive performances against the Bulldogs & Port before being overwhelmed by Hawthorn in Round 12. They have won some admirers through their attacking brand of footy but have also proved very hard to follow at times. Fremantle have largely been poor this season and have certainly under performed against confident predictions of a top 4 finish. They currently lie 11th on the ladder with a 5 & 7 record and will need a finish similar to last year to secure a spot in the 8. The Footypunt View Carlton need to turn around a couple of long losing streaks if they are to win this, having been defeated 8 straight by Fremantle and 10 straight at Subiaco. Freo have continued to disappoint recently and the theory that they can “peak” at the right time has to be seriously questioned after they were unable to finish off the Bulldogs in Darwin, when a win was almost imperative. They have been solid at home winning their last 4 outings although took along time to overcome the Tigers and there is no doubt the Blues will throw caution to the wind again this week. If Carlton can get on a run early and build up a handy lead by half time then there is some chance of an upset here. Logic says the Dockers will be too strong but for me the odds are just too short for a team traveling so poorly. Perhaps a nibble at Carlton head to head is worth a look at over $4.35 with Pinnacle
Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide, Gabba, Sat Jun 30 (7:10pm) The Odds (as at 1pm Fri)
Results Since 2004
Key Stats & Facts Mixed results between these sides recently although Port Adel have come away with the spoils in 2 of their past 3 trips to the Gabba The Form Book Brisbane have hit a real form slump with 5 losses and a draw from their past 6 matches and have dropped away to 13th place on the ladder. Port Adelaide bounced back against Essendon in Round 12 after a very poor run and currently cling on to 8th spot. The Footypunt View Brisbane have been disappointing since their promising start and despite putting up a resolute performance against Geelong at Skiilled were eventually beaten by 50 points in a low scoring affair. Port Adelaide have a more talented line up than the Lions and really need to record a win here if they going to feature come finals time. They also have a pretty good record at the Gabba with 2 victories in recent years and should prove too strong for Brisbane this week. The head to head odds look pretty good value $1.79 with Pinnacle.
St Kilda v Richmond, Telstra Dome, Sat Jun 30 (7:10pm) The Odds (as at 1pm Fri)
Results Since 2004
Key Stats & Facts
The Form Book The Saints stayed in the race for the 8 by upsetting West Coast in Perth last Sunday with a display of pure determination and intensity. The Eagles were taken by surprise and without Judd and several other key players were unable to hold off the desperate Saints who refused to give up. Richmond were as superb as Melbourne were awful last week and recorded their 1st win of the season after pulling away to an unassailable half time lead. The Footypunt View The Saints forced me to eat a large dose of humble pie last week and again reiterated the fact that there are no certainties in this year’s competition. In hindsight the Tigers result was probably a little more predictable with Richmond overdue for a win and Melbourne coming off some hard fought wins which no doubt left them in the wrong space mentally for a game they probably took for granted. Saint Kilda produced a fantastic victory against West Coast last week in a match they were never expected to win and their performance was clearly driven by the passion and determination to turn around their poor form and also produce a result for Robert Harvey in his 350th. The problem with winning in this manner is it is not generally sustainable and backing up 6 days later against the bottom team who are just hitting some form makes this a very tricky match for the Saints, despite their recent dominance over Richmond. I’m picking the Tigers to take out their 2nd in a row here and happy to take the $2.30 head to head on offer at Pinnacle. Dont forget the Saints have been beaten by some big margins this season when starting favs so for extra value take a look at Richmond Over 24.5 at $4.65 with Centrebet.
Adelaide v West Coast, AAMI Stadium, Sun Jul 1 (1:10pm) The Odds (as at 11am Sat)
|
