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Collingwood v Fremantle, Melbourne Cricket Ground, Fri Jun 1 (7:40pm) The Odds (as at 10am Thurs)
Results Since 2004
Key Stats & Facts
The Form Book Both teams lost their round 8 clashes but returned to form last week with solid wins over Brisbane and the Saints respectively. Collingwood continue to impress with consistent performances and poor goal kicking in some matches has been their only real weakness to date. Freo have been inconsistent and while they have failed to live up to the pre-season hype they are still hanging around the 8 and will be looking to reproduce last years great run of form in the latter part of the season. The Footypunt View While they have been adequate at Subiaco this season Fremantle have failed to impress away from W.A with losses to Geelong, Brisbane and Essendon. Their one victory on the road came against a heavily depleted Melbourne side in round 4. Collingwood on the other hand have been most consistent, playing good footy week in and week out and giving supporters plenty of hope they can challenge for a spot in the top 4. The weather forecast has improved somewhat over the past 24 hours and the match is unlikely to be rain affected to any significant degree. Although Freo have been somewhat dominant over the Pies in recent years this looks like a chance for Collingwood to help square the ledger and I’m picking them to be too strong here. Best head to head odds currently $1.54 at Pinnacle & for value consider the Pies Und 24.5 at $3.60 with Centrebet
Melbourne v Adelaide, Melbourne Cricket Ground, Sat Jun 2 (2:10pm) The Odds (as at 10am Thurs)
Results Since 2004
Key Stats & Facts
The Form Book What do the Dees have to do to win a match? Their last 4 games in Victoria have produced 5,6 & 1 point losses, all as underdogs against in-form sides. Adelaide have a 6 & 3 record in 2007 but have only played 3 sides in the top 8 and have failed to dominate against several of the weaker sides, including Carlton last week. The Footypunt View All things considered Adelaide are probably a little fortunate to sit 3rd on the ladder and may find it tough to get “up” for a game against the winless Dees in a second successive away match. On the other hand Melbourne will be desperate to record that elusive win and if they can improve on last weeks error rate then feel they will provide a significant challenge for the Crows here. The Demons are currently paying $1.98 at Pinnacle with a 14.5 point headstart which looks an outstanding bet. Also happy to have something head to head on the Dees at $2.88
West Coast v Kangaroos, Subiaco, Sat Jun 2 (4:10pm) The Odds (as at 10am Thurs)
Results Since 2004
Key Stats & Facts
The Form Book West Coast head the ladder with a 7 & 2 record despite losing away games to Geelong & Hawthorn in recent weeks. The Kangas made it 6 on the trot after a lucky escape against Melbourne on Sunday where they all but blew a 35 point ¾ time lead. The Footypunt View West Coast have a great “rebound” record over the past 12 months, generally bouncing back from an away loss by smashing their opposition the following week back at Subiaco. No better example of this than rounds 7 & 8 this year when they gave the Demons a 77 point hiding after losing to Geelong the previous week. Another important factor here is that this is far from a must-win match for the Kangas who may see round 11 & 12 games against St Kilda (Telstra Dome) & Adelaide (Gold Coast) as more realistic winning targets. If the Eagles get out to a handy lead don’t be surprised if the Kangas pull back the throttle and West Coast cruise home for another of those “comfortable” Subi victories. Although the Kangas have clearly displayed enough in recent weeks to make them competitive I am leaning towards West Coast at the line given the circumstances of the match. Best price on offer is currently $1.93 at Pinnacle giving away a 24.5 point headstart
Sydney v Essendon, Sydney Cricket Ground, Sat Jun 2 (7:10pm) The Odds (as at 10am Thurs)
Results Since 2004
Key Stats & Facts
The Form Book Sydney have returned to form over the past couple of weeks with convincing victories over both Port Adelaide and the Bulldogs and now hover just outside the 8. Essendon have recorded two straight wins but Brisbane offered little competition in round 8 and they were fortunate to get away with a last minute victory over Richmond last week. The Footypunt View Essendon are showing some good signs but haven’t produced enough to convince me they are capable of beating a classy in form side like Sydney away from home. They have not beaten the Swans in Sydney since 2001 and despite looking an improved side this season feel they are likely to struggle in this one. Sydney will also be very motivated to get another win under their belts before embarking on a tough run against 3 of the current top 5 sides Hawthorn, Collingwood & Geelong over the newt few rounds. The Swans are short but the $1.32 head to head at Pinnacle still looks a very good banker for multi punters. Not totally convinced about the -24.5 line given Sydneys propensity to win by smallish margins and for a bit of value might look at the 20-39 margin option with Vic TAB.
Richmond v Brisbane Lions, Telstra Dome, Sat Jun 2 (7:10pm) The Odds (as at 10am Thurs)
Results Since 2004
Key Stats & Facts
The Form Book Well the form book reads 0 & 9 for the Tigers but to be fair apart from the Geelong debacle they have been quite a bit better than that and could easily have 2 or 3 wins on the board. Brisbane started the season in promising fashion but already look to be on the slide with consecutive losses to Adelaide, Essendon & Collingwood, two of which were at the Gabba. The Footypunt View Richmond really should have won last week, probably suffering from a lack of self belief in the final quarter when the Bombers were on the ropes and should have been put away. The Richo decision obviously didn’t go in their way but the match should never have come down to that. Brisbane put up a fighting performance against Colingwood at the Gabba last week but back on the road could really struggle to match a fired up Tigers who will be determined to record their 1st win this week. The Lions were awful going down to the Bombers by 74 points two weeks ago and the formline through those two Essendon matches indicates a Richmond superiority of around 66 points. It might not be quite that easy but feel confident the Tigers will notch up their 1st win for 2007 here and the money is coming to support that view. After opening at $1.90 head to head Richmond have been backed in across the bookies and the $1.77 currently on offer at Pinnacle is close to the best you will find.
Port Adelaide v Hawthorn, AAMI Stadium, Sun Jun 3 (1:10pm) The Odds (as at 10am Thurs)
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